Released at SEMICON Japan 2019, the forecast shows equipment sales registering a 5.5 percent increase to $60.8 billion in 2020 and continued expansion into 2021, with record revenues of $66.8 billion as leading device manufactures invest in sub-10nm equipment, especially for foundry and logic.
The SEMI year-end forecast shows sales of wafer fab equipment – consisting of wafer processing, fab facility and mask/reticle equipment – falling 9 percent in 2019 to $49.9 billion. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is on track to decline 26.1 percent to $2.9 billion in 2019, while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to drop 14.0 percent to $4.8 billion this year.
Taiwan will dethrone Korea as the largest equipment market and lead the world with 53.3 percent growth this year, followed by North America with a 33.6 percent uptick. China will maintain the second spot for the second consecutive year, and Korea will fall to third after throttling back capital expenditures. All regions tracked except Taiwan and North America will contract this year.
SEMI expects the 2020 equipment market recovery to be fueled by advanced logic and foundry, new projects in China, and, to a lesser extent, memory. In Europe, equipment sales will surge 45.9 percent to $3.3 billion. Taiwan is forecast to remain the top equipment market next year on the strength of $15.4 billion in sales, with China second at $14.9 billion and Korea third at $10.3 billion. More upside is likely if the macroeconomy improves and trade tensions subside in 2020.
In 2021, all sectors tracked are expected to grow and the memory spending recovery will hit full stride. China is expected to ascend to the top position with equipment sales of more than $16 billion, followed by Korea, and Taiwan.
The Year-End Total Equipment Forecast is based on SEMI's industry-recognized World Fab Forecast database and input from equipment manufacturers. Total equipment includes wafer processing, fab facilities, mask/reticle, total test, and assembly and packaging equipment.
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