Annual Gains Fall Below 6% For The First Time In 12 Months According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

NEW YORK, Oct. 30, 2018 — (PRNewswire) —  S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.1%, down from 5.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.5% year-over-year gain, down from 5.9% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, San Francisco and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 10.6% increase and Seattle with a 9.6% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2018 versus the year ending July 2018. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in August. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not report any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase in August. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.1% month-over-month increases. In August, 12 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS          

"Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Comparing prices to their levels a year earlier, 14 of the 20 cities, the National Index plus the 10-city and 20-city Composite Indices all show slower price growth. The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices. Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters. Rising prices may be pricing some potential home buyers out of the market, especially when combined with mortgage rates approaching 5% for 30-year fixed rate loans.

"There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis, however. In 2006, when home prices peaked and then tumbled, mortgage default rates bottomed out and started a three year surge. Today, the mortgage default rates reported by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are stable. Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak (%)

Level

From Trough (%)

From Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

205.81

53.6%

11.5%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

213.72

59.4%

3.5%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

227.17

55.1%

0.4%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for August 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

 

Metropolitan Area

August 2018

August/July

July/June

1-Year

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

147.98

0.3%

0.5%

5.8%

Boston

216.44

0.1%

0.1%

5.5%

Charlotte

158.27

0.2%

0.1%

5.2%

Chicago

145.29

0.2%

0.3%

2.9%

Cleveland

124.20

0.5%

1.4%

5.6%

Dallas

187.41

0.0%

0.2%

4.7%

Denver

217.06

0.0%

0.3%

7.7%

Detroit

124.77

0.5%

0.4%

6.0%

Las Vegas

188.20

1.2%

1.4%

13.9%

Los Angeles

283.40

0.1%

0.1%

6.2%

Miami

237.99

0.1%

0.4%

5.0%

Minneapolis

173.81

0.3%

0.4%

6.0%

New York

198.59

0.0%

0.3%

2.8%

Phoenix

184.22

0.4%

0.7%

7.0%

Portland

235.28

-0.1%

0.5%

5.4%

San Diego

257.21

-0.5%

0.0%

4.8%

San Francisco

269.19

-0.3%

0.6%

10.6%

Seattle

253.72

-1.6%

-0.5%

9.6%

Tampa

211.50

0.5%

0.6%

7.0%

Washington

228.62

0.0%

0.1%

2.8%

Composite-10

227.17

0.0%

0.3%

5.1%

Composite-20

213.72

0.0%

0.3%

5.5%

U.S. National

205.81

0.2%

0.5%

5.8%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through August 2018





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