S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index Continues Steady Gains In October

NEW YORK, Dec. 26, 2017 — (PRNewswire) — S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.2% annual gain in October, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, up from 5.7% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.4% year-over-year gain, up from 6.2% the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 10.2% increase, and San Diego with an 8.1% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2017 versus the year ending September 2017. 

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for the top two cities, Seattle and Las Vegas.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in October. Eleven of 20 cities reported increases in October before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

"Home prices continue their climb supported by low inventories and increasing sales," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Nationally, home prices are up 6.2% in the 12 months to October, three times the rate of inflation. Sales of existing homes dropped 6.1% from March through September; they have since rebounded 8.4% in November. Inventories measured by months-supply of homes for sale dropped from the tight level of 4.2 months last summer to only 3.4 months in November.

"Underlying the rising prices for both new and existing homes are low interest rates, low unemployment and continuing economic growth. Some of these favorable factors may shift in 2018. The Fed is widely expected to raise the Fed funds rate three more times to reach 2% by the end of the New Year. Since home prices are rising faster than wages, salaries, and inflation, some areas could see potential home buyers compelled to look at renting. Data published by the Urban Institute suggests that in some West coast cities with rapidly rising home prices, renting is more attractive than buying."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

 

Index

 

Level

 

Date

 

Level

 

Date

From
Peak (%)

 

Level

From
Trough (%)

From
Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

195.63

46.0%

6.0%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

203.84

52.0%

-1.3%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

217.69

48.6%

-3.8%


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